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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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