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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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