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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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