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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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