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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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