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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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