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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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