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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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