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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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