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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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