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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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