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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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