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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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