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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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