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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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