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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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