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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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