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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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