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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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