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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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