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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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