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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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