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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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