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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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