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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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