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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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