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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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