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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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