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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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