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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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