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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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