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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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