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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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