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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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