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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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