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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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