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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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