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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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