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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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