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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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