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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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