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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
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