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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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