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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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