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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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