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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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