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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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