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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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