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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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