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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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