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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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