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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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