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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
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