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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
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