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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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