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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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