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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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