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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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