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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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