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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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