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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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