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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
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