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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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