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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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