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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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