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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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