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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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