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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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