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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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