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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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