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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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